The map of McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index is generated from meteorological data every 15 minutes. Please check the timestamp on the image to make sure it's current.

The map is generated in R using the sp, raster, and gstat libraries. Meteorologic data is sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology, and EPA Tasmania's BLANkET air quality monitoring program. The latest ACCESS-VT numerical forecast model is blended with real-time station observations; the difference between the ACCESS model and observations for temperature, wind speed and relative humidity are calculated and then interpolated using kriging. The resulting residual krieg is then added to the ACCESS surface to estimate current conditions. The drought factor component of FFDI is derived, currently, from an interpolation of drought factor values across Tasmania as published by the BOM. FFDI is then calculated from the temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and drought factor surfaces.

These maps represent the output from a statistical model, and are therefore subject to variation and inaccuracies. They should be used only as a guide to the spatial pattern and dynamics of fire danger across Tasmania; refer to the Tasmanian Fire Service for up-to-date warnings and information.

Update: 2018-12-24: Changed to a differential blending model based on ACCESS-VT forecasts.

Update: 2013-11-13: Changed to single colour scale, and single map. Map will soon be moving to TFS. Added links to app.

Update: 2013-03-20: Added Google Map view of maps. Projection errors mean images are slightly mis-aligned.

Update: 2013-03-18: Added image-map links for recent FFDI graph. Click on a met station on the map to see previous 3 days FFDI.

Update: 2013-03-14: Model was producing unrealistic output on a high-wind day. I have adjusted the code so separate Krig models are produced for each component variable of the FFDI, prior to the FFDI calculation.

FFDI Value and Category

This map shows the fire danger class and FFDI value.

FFDI Rate of Change

This map shows the rate of FFDI value change per hour.